16 Agustus 2021 16:20 WIB
Penulis: Fadel Surur
JAKARTA - President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) targets the exchange rate of rupiah to be stable at the level of Rp14.350 per US Dollar in 2022.
The target is still threatened by tapering off the fed policy by the United States on 2022 which will disrupt the domestic market. However, Jokowi claimed that the exchange rate target to be the fundamental benchmark to face the dynamic of the global economy next year. He remains optimistic that the exchange rate stays stable besides the dynamic of the global economy in 2022.
“This shows the Indonesian economic and the effect of the global economy in 2022,” state Jokowi in Introductory Speech of State Budget (APBN) Bills (RUU) on Monday, August 16, 2021.
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The exchange rate targeted by Jokowi is stronger than this year’s projection in the 2021 State Budget of Rp14.600 per US Dollar. As for the inflation target in the State Budget Bills, it is set at 3%.
The target did not experience any change as it is stated in the 2021 State Budget. According to him, the inflation which reached 3% could be the indication to the strengthening of the people’s purchasing power.
“The inflation will stay at 3% which indicates an increase in the demand side, whether that be due to the economic recovery or refinement of purchasing power, " he said.
Other than that, Jokowi orders the Ministry of Finance (Kementerian Keuangan) to maintain the interest rate of Government Debt Securities (SBN) as the main source of government’s debt withdrawal.
SBN with 10 years tenor is claimed by Jokowi to have interest rate in the range of 6.82% or lower compared to the 2021 State Budget which reached 7.29%.
PT Bank Permata Tbk (BNLI) economist Josua Pardede says that next year will be a momentum for global economi shock. Indonesia have to be overshadowed by the effect of tapering off by the US central bank, The Fed.
“Bank Indonesia also have to keep anticipating the direction of the US monetary policy next year that the policy regarding the interest rate of BI will also adjust the rupiah stability while also support the economic recovery in 2022 which is predicted to be more significant,” Josua explained to Trenasia.com on Wednesday, August 16, 2021.
Tapering off by The Fed is a sentiment that directly affect the rupiah exchange rate. Josua gives an example of rupiah exchange rate weakening from Rp9000 to Rp13000 in 2013 after the US central bank releasing its stimulus.